COLLEGE BASKETBALL PREVIEW
Usually the Maui Invitational is the official tip-off of the college basketball season for me, so with that event already underway, I figured it was time for a College Basketball preview. College basketball has to be the most challenging to predict out of all the other sports, even though I pretty well butchered my NFL and College Football previews. It’s hard to judge a basketball team on talent alone and it is important to see teams play together and reserve judgment until then. That’s a big reason why I consulted my buddy Stollman who literally watched about 10,000 games last year working in the war room for ESPN in Bristol. His job was to update the bottom line and he might be the only person in America to have watched Davidson over 20 times last season and also be able to recite Long Beach State’s starting five in 2006-07. Without further adieu, here is The Shots 2007-08 non-Indiana-biased College Hardwood Preview!
The Shots N-I-BCHP! Top Ten
1) UCLA
I’ve sung the praises of Jim Tressel at Ohio State many times in The Shots and now you can get used to me gushing over Ben Howland. Howland is probably the best coach in the country and his teams are always among the cream of the crop defensively. The Bruins will miss Aaron Afflalo but have other scorers to make up for his point production. Darren Collison (5.7 apg) is the one of the country's premiere point guards and will have Josh Shipp (13.3 ppg) and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (8.2 ppg) to dish off to. Also, the addition of phenom freshman Kevin Love will give a huge boost to the UCLA front-line. Love is not as flashy as some of his freshman counterparts, but he is an excellent scorer, rebounder and defender.
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Just like Jennifer Lopez, I love Ben...
2) Memphis
John Calipari actually got some of his talented players to stick around instead of bolting for the NBA like in seasons past. In fact, ten of the Tigers’ top 11 scorers return led by Chris Douglas-Roberts who flirted with going pro. There is no reason to believe the Tigers can’t go unbeaten in the horrific Conference USA, which is basically a glorified mid-major league. Their non-league schedule is brutal as always, and the Tigers will have plenty of chances to prove their worth with games against USC, Georgetown, Arizona, Gonzaga and Tennessee. This could be the year that Memphis finally gets over the Elite 8 hump and into the Final Four, something they have failed to do the last two seasons.
3) North Carolina
The Tar Heels are probably the most talented team in the country but I’m just not sure how all the pieces will fit together. Tyler Hansbrough is a great basketball player but he doesn’t take over games. He’s good for 20 and 10 every night but I don’t feel like he’s the best player in the country as some others do. Ty Lawson (5.6 apg) is back along with Wayne Ellington who has the potential to score 20 ppg. The Heels are also extremely deep and could have a rotation of nine players or more. The ACC is down this year with Boston College, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and Maryland all with worse teams than a year ago. UNC is clearly the best team in the League with Duke a far distant second.
4) Tennessee
Is it just me or has Chris Lofton been at Tennessee since Peerless Price was catching passes from Tee Martin (that’s 1998 people)? Well the SEC Player of the Year is back with a bevy of upperclassmen and talented Iowa-transfer Tyler Smith. Tyler is available immediately because of an NCAA waiver which gives him a pass on sitting out a season. This team is basically Chris and the Smiths with JaJuan Smith (15.2 ppg), Ramar Smith (10.7 ppg), and Tyler Smith (13.0 ppg). This got me thinking, how easy would it be to do play-by-play for Vols hoops? Smith crosses the timeline on the right wing to Smith, bounce pass into Smith, Smith backing his man in, behind the back pass to Smith for the lay-in that misses off the front rim, putback try by Smith no good, Smith gets his own rebound, out to Smith to reset, back into Smith from the key, Smith jumper from 15-feet good! Now imagine Gus Johnson doing Vols play-by-play…I think his head would explode. Please CBS if you’re reading this, make it happen!
The only player NOT named Smith on the Vols this season
5) Georgetown
Jeff Green was a do-it-all player and the Hoyas will miss him dearly, but they have a lot of the pieces from their Final Four squad back. Roy Hibbert is slow and often disappears but he’s 7’2 and has improved each season. If he stays out of foul trouble, he can be dominant. Their backcourt of Jonathan Wallace and Jessie Sapp is underrated and both of those players stepped up big-time in the tourney last season. The Hoyas also have a great recruiting class coming in, the crown jewel being SG Austin Freeman who can come in an contribute immediately.
6) Michigan State
I gush over Ben Howland yet I’m pretty sure that Tom Izzo could take just about any team in the America to the NCAA Tournament. He has Drew Neitzel (18.1 ppg) back, who is easily their best floor leader since Mateen Cleaves. Hopefully for Neitzel some of the scoring load will now fall on sophomore Raymar Morgan who has shown flashes but had problems with consistency last season. The Spartans are always amongst the best in team defense and in rebounding the basketball. Look for them to take advantage of an extremely weak Big Ten.
7) Marquette
I haven’t quite decided why I am this high on Marquette but it could be because I'm biased towards Richmond, Indiana native Dominic James (14.9 ppg). I love good guard play and that’s exactly what the Golden Eagles possess with James, Jerel McNeal and Wesley Matthews. Marquette lacks size but they have shooters and defenders all over the court. They also have an extremely weak non-conference schedule (outside of Maui) and play Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Villanova and Syracuse just once each. If Tom Crean fails to get this team out of the first round again, he should be canned.
Good guard play is the best way to schmooze me
8) Indiana
ERIC GORDON clapclapclapclapclap. Sorry, just thought I would get that out of the way. But in all seriousness, he is extremely gifted athletically and is likely one of the best shooters in the country. Gordon has length, speed and intelligence and most importantly a level-head, something other star freshman (cough OJ Mayo cough) may lack. DJ White and Armon Bassett will pick up the rest of the scoring for the Hoosiers and the additions of juco transfers Jamarcus Ellis and DeAndre Thomas add some depth. One thing that we know about IU is that they are capable of scoring 100 a night, but with the departure of Earl Calloway, they don’t have a true point to distribute the basketball to their scorers. I haven’t made up my mind on this team yet but they certainly have the potential to do something special.
9) Washington State
Not to take anything away from Tony Bennett but this is a team that would win the National Championship under Tom Izzo. They are fundamentally sound, have several players that can score and are among the nation’s best in team defense. I really like their senior guard Kyle Weaver. He is the definition of a complete player. The Pac10 isn’t nearly as strong as it was a year ago.
10) Louisville
This is where I had them before David Padgett’s injury so I am going to stick with them because I still think that even without Padgett, they have the potential to be a very good team. Terrence Williams is a stud and I think Derrick Caracter is more that capable of replacing Padgett’s scoring. Juan Palacios is also hurt and the Cards will need him back ASAP in order to keep their heads above water. I love their sophomore class: Caracter, Edgar Sosa, Earl Clark, and if those players stick around next season, they will be National Championship favorites.
OVERRATED
1) Arizona
The Cats are relying heavily on two freshman Jerryd Bayless and Jamelle Horne and outside of sophomore Chase Budinger, don’t have a ton of talent or depth. I think this program, like Florida State, has had a precipitous drop since the turn of the century. The fact is, they’ve never recovered from that 2005 collapse against Illinois in the Elite 8. I think they are better this season than they have been the past two years and could be a Sweet 16 team, but I don't see them as a Final Four contender.
2) Duke
Anybody that thinks this team it one of the ten best in the country is dreaming. They lack athleticism and the scorers to keep up with the upper-tier teams. The relied a bunch on Josh McRoberts last season and though freshman Kyle Singler is extremely talented, it’s doubtful he can pick up all the slack. I think the most important player on this team and maybe in the country is Gerald Henderson. If he emerges this season, Duke could be a top ten team but if he falters, they will struggle.
3) UConn
Jim Calhoun pretty much returns the whole team but they were really bad last year and I don’t see how they’ll improve enough to find their way into the top 20 like some are predicting. They are extremely athletic with Curtis Kelley, AJ Price and Stanley Robinson but where are the shooters on this team? Where are the scorers? I like their size but their guard play leaves a lot to be desired.
3 ½) Gonzaga
I should probably throw the Zags up here as well. That team never does anything in the tournament, yet they find themselves in the preseason top fifteen every single year. Throw them in the Big East or Big 12 and they would be .500 or worse. Jeremy Pargo is pretty good but people talk about him like he’s an All-American – he’s not. Ditto for Micah Downs. People thought because he originally went to Kansas that he was a super talent, then they realized that he isn’t a scorer. Anybody can look good in the dreadful WCC.
Get past the first week of the NCAA Tournament, then we can talk
UNDERRATED
1) Villanova
Scottie Reynolds is a winner. He put that team on his back last season and carried them all the way to the NCAAs before a disappointing first round exit. They’ll miss the leadership of Mike Nardi and their size is lacking without Curtis Sumpter but Dante Cunningham and Shane Clark are a nice frontcourt duo. This team is extremely young but if some of the freshmen like Corey Fisher and Corey Stokes play well, they could be dangerous.
2) Miami
The usual doormat of the ACC, the Canes have the size and experience to finally make some noise in this league. They have several players that can score in juniors Jack McClinton and James Asbury. Also they boast a big frontcourt led by Anthony King. The ACC is a bit down this year and there is a significant drop-off after North Carolina, leaving Miami as a potential NCAA Tournament team (because the ACC gets 11 bids every year..).
3) Bradley
Daniel Ruffin and Jeremy Crouch are a talented senior backcourt and are the top two returning scorers in the entire Missouri Valley Conference. Behind those two there isn’t much, but if juco transfers Rashad Austin, Tyrone Cole-Scott and Matt Salley step up then there is no reason why the Braves can contend for a Mo Valley crown.
The MVC lost most of their talented players but Ruffin returns for Bradley
The Shots N-I-BCHP! Quickies:
WOODEN AWARD WINNER: Derrick Rose, Memphis
WOODEN DARKHORSE: J.J. Hickson, N.C. State
GUY THAT’S GOOD THAT YOU KNOW ABOUT: Patrick Beverly, Arkansas
GUY THAT’S GOOD THAT YOU DON’T KNOW ABOUT: Eugene Harvey, Seton Hall
FRESHMAN WHO’S GOOD THAT YOU KNOW ABOUT: Eric Gordon, Indiana
FRESHMAN WHO’S GOOD THAT YOU DON’T KNOW ABOUT: James Johnson, Wake Forest
FORMER INDIANA KID TO KEEP AN EYE ON: Deonta Vaughn, Cincinnati
OVERRATED HEAD COACH: Roy Williams, North Carolina
UNDERRATED HEAD COACH: Mike Anderson, Missouri
BCS BUSTER: BYU at Michigan State, 12/8
UPSET SPECIAL: Xavier vs. Tennessee, 12/22
BEST ATMOSPHERE: Indiana at Illinois, 2/7
BRING ASPIRIN: New Jersey Institute of Technology at Longwood, 2/18
BRING A FOOTBALL: West Virginia vs. Oklahoma, 12/29
BRING A GOOD PICK UP LINE: Pepperdine at UC-Santa Barbara, 12/5
RUGGED ROAD: Texas (@UCLA, @Michigan State, Wisconsin)
HAPPY TRAIL: Notre Dame (Youngstown State, Colgate, Brown, North Florida?)
REMEMBER ME? Robert Vaden, UAB
YOU’RE STILL HERE? David Padgett, Louisville
READY FOR A PROMOTION: Dave Rose, BYU
READY FOR A PINK SLIP: Ed DeChellis, PennState
NEEDS A PR GUY: Jaycee Carroll, Utah State
NEEDS A HUG: Greg Paulus, Duke
SHOOTING THE REST OF THE SPORTS WORLD:
Swish: Bill Lynch
I’ve always thought that Bill Lynch was a great guy and he’s done a lot of work with us on the station. But, during various points this season, I’ve thought that IU should open up the coaching search at the end of the season and that Lynch was not the long-term answer. Well, it would be impossible and insulting for IU to not bring Lynch back now after a huge 27-24 win over Purdue in the annual Old Oaken Bucket game. The Hoosiers beat Purdue for the first time since 2001 (when I was a freshman in Bloomington rocking earrings and a backwards upside-down visor) and will now go to a bowl game for the first time since 1993 (when I was in 5th grade rocking Reebok Pumps).
Lynch deserves another couple years after leading IU to a Bucket win
Brick: Joe Tiller
It is becoming increasingly apparent that Tiller is incapable of taking this Purdue program to the next level. This season was another big chance for Purdue to vault into the upper-tier of a pathetic Big Ten conference and they failed to do so. The Boilermakers do not and cannot beat teams that are equal or better than they are and they haven’t for many years. Equally frustrating for Boiler fans is the fast starts leading into the 2nd half collapses. Here is Purdue’s performance over the past four seasons:
2004: start 5-0 and are ranked 5th, College Gameday comes to Purdue for the Wisconsin game, Kyle Orton fumbles late and the Badgers run it back for a touchdown. Purdue finishes 2-5, loses in the Sun Bowl to Arizona State.
2005: ranked 13th in the preseason but lost six-straight during the middle of the year before finishing 5-6 with no bowl game.
2006: started 4-0, finished 4-6 with a Champs Sports Bowl loss to Maryland.
2007: started 5-0, then 7-2 before finishing with three straight losses.
They have too much talent to be finishing with 7-8 wins every single season.
Swish: Boston Celtics
You gotta hand it to them, they’ve looked as good as advertised so far. I was a bit skeptical in my NBA Preview, but then again I a) have a blind hatred for the Celtics, b) think Doc Rivers is an idiot, and c) still think that they can’t stay healthy. But, after the first few weeks, it’s obvious that this is clearly an upper-echelon team in the Eastern Conference, especially with the way the Heat and Bulls have looked. Garnett is great and I’m glad he didn’t have to rot away the rest of his career in Minnesota. However, the Sox have already won the Series and barring the biggest upset in professional sports history, the Patriots are going to easily win the Super Bowl. If the C’s end up winning the NBA Finals then my head, and possibly planet earth, will likely explode.
Brick: The Pittsburgh Steelers
Everyone has a letdown game at some point in the NFL season. It happens to virtually every team and every season is a given. An acceptable letdown loss would losing to a team .500 or slightly worse (i.e. the Colts losing at Tennessee last year). But, under no circumstances is there an excuse for a 7-2 Steelers team to lose to a putrid 1-8 Jets team. I know the Dolphins were 0-9 (now 0-10) going into last week, but I still felt that the Jets were in fact the worst team in the NFL. But, the Jets invoked memories of the Sack Exchange, putting Big Ben on his back SEVEN times. With the loss, the Steelers virtually assured themselves of the 3 seed in the AFC at best. Have you looked at the Colts schedule? Even with all the injuries, there is no way they finish worse than 13-3 and the Steelers already have one guaranteed loss left (@ New England). Horrible, horrible loss.
IN-EX-CUS-A-BLE
Swish: Jimmie Johnson
Much like my Fantasy NASCAR team, Jeff Gordon dominated the Nextel Cup circuit throughout the season and it seemed like he was easily going to capture his 5th championship. But, Johnson had a ridiculous streak of four-straight wins in the final five races and drove the snot out of his #48 car en route to his 2nd consecutive Nextel Cup Championship. I think once Dale Jr. makes the switch to Hendrick in 2008, he’ll find his way among the elite drivers in the sport. But for now, it’s Gordon and Johnson and everybody else.
Air Ball: The Knicks, Stephon Marbury, Isiah Thomas, James Dolan
Let’s just lump everybody together because they are all of equal blame for this mess. You know what? This isn’t even worth talking about. I’ve wasted enough time and I’m pretty sure I’ve developed carpal tunnel from typing out angry rants about how the Knicks should blow up the franchise. If you want to see how I feel about the current state of the Knicks, check out this post on my favorite Knicks blog Posting & Toasting. Warning: Contains strong language - completely warranted strong language, but I’m just letting you know ahead of time.
The Shots FANTASY Update:
BJacobs Ran Over You def. Winslow’s Soldiers 103-64
BJacobs Ran Over You def. Bye 98-67
Wow, what a two weeks it’s been! I basically declared the BJ ROY’s dead after a Week 9 loss put me back in 6th place but after an impassioned Locker Room speech (aka me screaming at Donovan McNabb on my computer screen), my team has come together and is in it for the long haul. I had a monster week in Week 10, destroying McCauley’s Winslow’s Soldiers thanks in part to Kellen Winslow himself (13 pts, 5 rec, 46 yds, TD). Making it even better/worse was that I actually had Donovan McNabb (30 pts) and Jeremy Shockey (24 pts) on my bench. Last week, Steven Jackson (14 pts) and my WRs Holmes, Holt, Galloway (41 pts) came through along with my GGGGG-MEN defense (17 pts) which took a huge dump on Jon Kitna’s face. The BJ ROY’s (4th place, 7-4) are now one win away from clinching a playoff spot, with a crucial game against 3rd place Yeah B*tches! (7-3-1). The anticipation is killing me.
Even Brandon Jacobs was excited when hearing news of my fantasy team's rebound
Fantasy NASCAR, 2nd place (9,267 points)
The dream has died. Like a pregnant woman, I carried my Fantasy NASCAR first place title for 8 months of the excruciatingly long 9 month season. I sputtered to the finish and could never recover once McCauley passed me for the decisive blow. I have now had runner-up finishes in three of my past four leagues (NHL and NBA being the other two) and have yet to capture a championship since my 2005 Fantasy Football win. That being said, I have now won five trophies in just the past two years (3rd place in ’06 football and ’07 baseball) so I guess it is nothing to be ashamed of. You know what the worst part of my loss is? This:
i think
by:  Schultz |
Jun 25 6:46am |
| i might be hard to catch since i keep picking the winner every week. i should probably sit out a week and let everyone catch up. |
Just like a NASCAR race
by:  reignman40440 |
Jun 27 12:04pm |
| Schultz, this league is just like a NASCAR race, the excitement doesn't build until the last 30 or 40 laps. Give it a few weeks and we'll see how you're doing. |
Re: Just like a NASCAR race
by: Schultz |
Jun 28 10:17am |
if it is indeed like you say May, then i guess everyone is four laps down and running on fumes.
the only way im losing is if i get loose and hit the wall. |
Um, yeah so it looks like I got a little loose and hit the wall....
Isiah Groped Me def. Boston can suck it, 5-4
A decent opening week for me has put my team in a four-way tie for first place. Jason Richardson and Ray Allen were the big-time performers of the week, as was Yao Ming, who is currently the top fantasy player in my league. Remember how I said that this team had too many Knicks on it? Well, not so much anymore… I cut Eddy Curry, Jamal Crawford and David Lee and replaced them with Ronnie Brewer, Chris Kaman and Damien Wilkins (son of my 2nd favorite Knick of all-time, Gerald Wilkins). I’m cutting the cord on the 2007-08 Knicks and I don’t want to be associated with them any longer. St. John’s could beat them.
Weis Botched Gastric Bypass, 3rd place (1,875) College Football Pick ‘em
I was damn near perfect this week with my only wrong picks being Clemson and Oklahoma. All I have to do is hold on to a ten-point advantage after this week and then it’s smooth sailing. By the way, this week is almost impossible to predict but I took Kansas, WVU, Tennessee, UCLA and my upset special: A&M over my beloved Texas Longhorns. Please lose Texas, I hate you so much.
The Shots What to Watch this week:
Missouri vs. Kansas (at Arrowhead Stadium), Saturday
Both of these teams control their own destiny in the BCS Championship hunt. This will be a battle between two of the best quarterbacks in the country that fans outside of the college football world know nothing about: Chase Daniel and Todd Reesing. Combined, these two signal-callers have thrown for 60 touchdowns and just 13 interceptions. There is a ton at stake here: a spot in the Big 12 Championship game, a possible spot in the BCS Championship game and the Heisman trophy which is wide open. Is that enough reason to watch?
A battle of two of the most underrated QBs in the country takes place on Saturday
Rhode Island at Boston College, Wednesday
This is a big game and an underrated rivalry between the Rams and Eagles. URI is off to their best start in 27 years at 5-0 with solid wins over South Florida and UAB (Fire Mike Davis!). Outside of junior Tyrese Rice this is a young BC team, full of underclassmen. If Rhode Island can pull off the win, it would put the Rams in the conversation with Xavier as a potential Atlantic 10 Champion.
The Shots YouTube Clips this week:
Sports related - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aySGUzzxjGE
A great clip of the special treatment that Dwayne Wade gets from the NBA referees. This is actually pretty sickening.
Non-sports related - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0TWOWjpEnI
I was feelin' old-school today. I enjoyed this much more than the regular Hockey game.
The Shots Chick Pick this week: Yvonne Strahovski from NBC's Chuck
I've never even seen this show. I just know she's hot from the commercials.
Have a great Thanksgiving everyone, see you next week.
Shoot your own Shots in the mailbag: derek@espn950.com.
