Disclaimer: This column is not an attempt to jinx the Chicago Cubs, their fans or Ron Santo. If the Cubs collapse over the final five days of the Major League Baseball regular season, The Shots cannot be held responsible. Even though that would be kind of cool to be grouped in with the curses: the Goat, the black cat, Steve Bartman, and Derek Schultz’s online column for the ESPN Radio affiliate in Indianapolis.
CUBBIES MAKING THEIR WAY
Flashback to June 2nd: The Cubs had just lost their sixth-straight game and plummeted to 22-31, 7 ½ games back of first place Milwaukee and a game back of second-place Pittsburgh. This was the same day that Lou Piniella was ejected after a dirt-kicking tirade in the 8th inning on a correct call from third base umpire Mark Wegner. This was just a day after the Zambrano-Barrett fight. This was the same day Alfonso Soriano hit just his 5th home run.
Since that day, the Cubs have gone 61-42. A team that looked dysfunctional, lazy and utterly pathetic through the first eight weeks of the baseball season, is four wins away from a division championship for only the fourth time in 62 years. Several major factors have led to the big turnaround in Wrigleyville.
A franchise that has often been plagued by poor free-agent signings, had an almost perfect offseason. Their big-ticket player was Alfonso Soriano. Despite a slow start, Soriano has been everything the Cubs could’ve hoped for. He’s hit almost .300 (.296 to be exact), is 2nd on the team in stolen bases (19) and hits (154) and leads the team in HRs (31) and runs scored (94). Ted Lilly was arguably the best free-agent signing of the entire summer, posting career-best numbers (min. 15 starts) in wins (15), ERA (3.78) and strikeouts (168). Jason Marquis has also earned every penny of his $7 million ($21M/3 yrs.), with a 12-8 record and solid 4.35 ERA. Finally, Mark DeRosa was the last piece of the free-agent class and has batted .295 with 10 HR and 72 RBI, certainly not bad numbers for a former utility infielder.
Free-agent signee Alfonso Soriano has given Cubs fans plenty to cheer about
Another major factor in the Cubs resurgence this season has been the strength of their bench. Daryle Ward is batting .328 in 108 at-bats, mostly as a pinch-hitter. Cliff Floyd has hit 9 home runs and driven in 45 runs while hitting at a .287 clip as the fourth outfielder. Mike Fontenot (.286), Matt Murton (.284), and even Angel Pagan have all contributed as well.
Also, major improvement has come from the much-maligned bullpen. Converted starter Carlos Marmol has been lights-out in his new setup role, posting a 1.21 ERA and a nearly 3:1 K/BB ratio after having an ERA over 6 as a starter in 2006. Fellow reliever Bobby Howry has been steady and even closer Ryan Dempster (28 SV) has bounced back nicely from an awful season last year. Cubs fans will still be on edge when Dempster comes in to protect a one-run lead, but at least now they have some middle-relief to get the ball to their closer.
A ton of credit has to go to new manager Lou Piniella for keeping this team afloat, especially during the chaos of early June. After the Barrett-Zambrano fight, the team responded with a 9-5 run. After an early August swoon, the Cubs won 6 of 9 to reclaim first place. He has avoided confrontation with Alfonso Soriano by keeping him in his desired leadoff role, even though he would be much more helpful in the middle of the lineup. Piniella has also kept Carlos Zambrano and his ego in check despite wild swings of inconsistency. The Cubbies surpassed their 2006 win total (65) on August 24th and could finish with a better record than 2003 if they win their final six. I’m not sure who is the frontrunner for Manager of Year, but Lou Piniella is right there with Diamondbacks manager Bob Melvin and Phillies manager Charlie Manuel on the short-list.
Lou and the Cubs have come a long way since their early June meltdowns
Say what you want about the NL Central (God knows that I have) but the fact is that a team from this division has represented the National League in the World Series for the last three seasons (Cardinals in '04,'06 - Astros in '05). The playoffs, especially in the National League, are a complete crapshoot right now. The Mets haven’t played good baseball for nearly two months, the Padres can’t hit, the Phillies can’t pitch and the Diamondbacks are young and inexperienced when it comes to postseason baseball.
Much like a bubble team at the end of February, the goal for the Cubs is just to get onto the dance floor and see what happens. I’d give them as good of a shot as any team to reach the Series.
Remember how obnoxious Bears fans were when their team made the Super Bowl, just imagine if the Cubs would make the World Series.
God help us.
SHOOTING THE REST OF THE SPORTS WORLD:
Swish: Indians and Angels
Sometimes we go overboard with the Yanks/Sox/Mets talk and some really good baseball teams are overlooked. That’s exactly the case with the Indians and Angels who have been significantly dominant from start to finish in the regular season. The Angels have overcome horrible seasons from Ervin Santana (7-13, 5.63 ERA) and “ace” Bartolo Colon (6.41 ERA, 1.64 WHIP!) to win the AL West for the 3rd time in 4 years. Travis Hafner (.256 BA) has had a down year for the Tribe, but others have stepped up in his place, including Ryan Garko (20 HR, 59 RBI). These teams aren’t favorites to win the World Series, however would you be surprised if either of them did?
Brick: Nebraska
You’d have to be living in a cave to not have heard that Notre Dame is bad this year. Bad they may be, but irrelevant they are not. Nebraska, on the other hand, is pretty much out of the spotlight entirely. In a 41-40 win over Ball State in Lincoln, the Cornhuskers yielded 610 yards of total offense, the most that Nebraska has allowed since 1991. The Cardinals led that game by nine with ten minutes to go, and if WR Dante Love doesn’t drop a sure touchdown pass in the final minutes, they probably score the upset. Since 2001, Nebraska hasn’t finished higher than 18th in the polls and has not appeared in a BCS Bowl. But, lucky for them, they play in an extremely weak Big 12 conference where (no Oklahoma on the schedule) anything less than nine wins would be a shock. I still hear about Notre Dame. But, I haven’t heard anything about Nebraska since Eric Crouch was around. Just further proof that the days of the Florida States, Miamis and Nebraskas ruling the college football world are long over.
Who knows if these poor kids will ever see Championship-caliber football in Lincoln...
Brick: Indiana
One word can sum up Saturday’s loss to Illinois: ugly. IU looked like the Hoosiers of old, giving up 288 yards on the ground, 214 of which went to Rashard Mendenhall. A team that some people were penciling in for 8-9 wins, without Michigan and Ohio State on the schedule, would be lucky to win six. Indiana still has winnable games against Minnesota (who is absolutely awful), at Northwestern and Ball State. But, I’m not so sure I’d pick this team to beat anybody on the road and Ball State gave Nebraska all they could handle. Getting back to the Illini’s rushing dominance, the Big Ten is a smash-mouth league with teams that grind it out on the ground. Indiana will never consistently win in the Big Ten if they can’t stop the run. Also, IU can’t always rely on finding diamonds-in-the-rough (Kellen Lewis) on the recruiting trail. Until the Hoosiers can consistently battle with the Iowas and Illinois of the world for recruits instead of the Central Michigans and Toledos, anything more than 6-7 wins will be a pipe dream. Also, big-time “brick” to the IU students, who failed to show up for perhaps the biggest game in Bloomington in 15 years. 34,000 fans? Pathetic.
Air Ball: Donovan McNabb
McNabb’s comments last week regarding black quarterbacks being scrutinized more than white quarterbacks were completely baseless. McNabb went on to say that Carson Palmer and Peyton Manning don’t get scrutinized as much as he does. Here is what needs to be explained to Donovan:
A) He plays in Philadelphia, the same town that booed Santa Claus and Mike Schmidt. Last time I checked, both of them are white.
B) Rex Grossman was the quarterback of the NFC-champion Bears last season but is by far the most highly criticized starting QB in the NFL today. Rex is white.
C) McNabb already set the bar really high for himself. He led the Eagles to four straight NFC Championship games (2001-04) and a Super Bowl. If he gets criticized, it’s only for not living up to the expectations that he already set for himself.
D) My kicker Lawrence Tynes had more fantasy points (12) than McNabb (9) after Week Two when these comments surfaced. Talk about bad timing.
E) Peyton is no longer criticized because he finally got the “can’t win the big one” stigma off his back. And Cincinnati fans are so happy just to have a competitive football team again, after years of futility, that they could never criticize Palmer.
F) You could argue that there isn’t a more overrated player in the league than Vince Young, a black quarterback (who, by the way, did not agree with McNabb’s comments). Young is highly praised for being a winner and showing poise but look at his numbers (going into Monday night): 67.8 career QB rating, 13-14 TD/INT, and a paltry 144.8 passing yards per game. Not taking anything away from Young, who I think is going to be a star, but it certainly warrants mentioning.
Here’s the deal: I’m tired of the race card. This whole black QB thing hasn’t been an issue for over a decade and pulling the race card now is disrespectful to Doug Williams, Randall Cunningham, Warren Moon and some of the other black QB pioneers who had to deal with real criticism and real racism. Frankly, these days McNabb has it easy compared to them.
Philly fans are extremely drunk passionate and have little tolerance for B.S.
Swish: Georgia
After a disappointing home loss to South Carolina, the Bulldogs scored a 26-23 win on the road over a ranked Alabama team. Georgia head coach Mark Richt is now 23-3 in SEC road games, which may be the most ridiculously unbelievable statistic in sports today. For the first time in a long time, the SEC East actually looks more loaded than the West, with Kentucky, Florida, Georgia and South Carolina making up one-quarter of the top 16 teams in the country. SEC West teams Auburn and Arkansas are both 0-2 in league play.
Brick: Joe Gibbs
The Redskins blew a chance to force overtime late in the fourth quarter of their 24-17 loss to the New York Giants. After a long completion to Antwaan Randle-El (who I can’t get mad at), Jason Campbell spiked the ball with over a minute left on First and Goal at the two-yard line so the Skins could get their Jumbo package personnel on the field. First, there is absolutely no reason to waste a down in that situation. You have to take advantage of every play you have with the game on the line. There was plenty of time to run something and then get the correct personnel on the field starting with 2nd down. Second of all, who the hell runs the Jumbo package anymore? Hey, Joe Gibbs…1985 called and it wants its playbook back. I mean seriously, did Gibbs really think that handing off to Ladell Betts twice and throwing to FB Mike Sellers was his best chance to score? How could Clinton Portis be on the sidelines that whole time? Anyways, it was a critical loss for the Redskins, who could’ve been 3-0 going into a home game with Detroit. Basically at 3-0, all they would’ve had to do was go 4-9 the rest of the way to clinch a playoff berth in the NFC.
Taking a page out of Joe Gibbs' playbook...
Air Ball: Rex Grossman
Sunday nights abysmal performance may have finally ended Grossman’s starting QB tenure in Chicago. The Bears are off to a 1-2 start behind Grossman, who has amassed a 45.2 passer rating and a league-high six interceptions in his first three games. Behind him is the thrice-released Brian Griese, who did make a Pro Bowl in 2000 with Denver. Teams can win with mediocre quarterbacks that do not make mistakes (see: Johnson, Brad and Dilfer, Trent). But, nobody can win with a quarterback that is immobile, inaccurate and commits way to many turnovers.
The Rex era may finally be over in the Windy City
Air Ball: Louisville and the New Orleans Saints
I think I've already said all there is to be said about the Cardinals. They're garbage. If you didn't know it last week, then you certainly know it after their home loss to pathetic Syracuse. Same goes for New Orleans, The Shots pick to win the Super Bowl. The Saints suddenly can't score and their defense can't stop anybody. This team is in major trouble.
The Shots What to Watch this week:
San Diego at Milwaukee – Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday
This is the only series in baseball’s final weekend involving two teams still fighting for playoff berths. The Brewers have dug themselves a huge hole in the NL Central and are facing must-wins the rest of the way while the Padres are trying to hold of the Phillies and the Rockies in the NL Wild Card hunt.
West Virginia at South Florida – Friday
I said it in my college football preview and I’ll say it again, South Florida will win this game. Also, watch out for Bulls QB Matt Grothe, he has a QB rating of 131.2 and was outstanding in wins over Auburn and North Carolina in the past two weeks.
Seattle at San Francisco – Sunday
The winner of this game gets a huge leg-up in the NFC West race.
The Shots YouTube clips this week:
Oklahoma State Mike Gundy goes on a long rant about a newspaper article that made him upset. I feel bad for any elementary school kids that bully his children. I’d also hate to see what this guy is like after a loss.
Stephon Marbury's reaction to the Knicks acquisition of the "left-handed southpaw" Zack Randolph. YES SIR! One thing you can say about the Knicks, bad as they have been, they're never boring. Hopefully the addition of the "younger, youthier" Randolph will make the Knicks a playoff team. Side note: If anyone ever sees a Knicks "Yes, Sir!" t-shirt for sale online, please send me a link.
The Shots FANTASY UPDATE
This is something that I wanted to install a couple weeks ago, but somehow forgot. Well I was reminded this week, so this is where it starts:
BJacobs Ran Over You def. Ladell Butts, 152-104
Huge win this week because it moves me to 2-1 on the season, also closes the points gap to just 4 points between myself and the first-place climbthesemountains (3-0). The victory was made much sweeter considering that the person I was playing changed their team name to Ladell Butts on Wednesday. Ladell “Betts” was stuffed twice on the goal line by my beloved Giants in a 24-17 G-Men triumph at Washington. There’s nothing better than a) a convincing fantasy victory, b) putting up the most points in your league and c) talking smack on the message board about your convincing fantasy victory. The only thing better is putting up the most points, AND talking smack about the person that your opposition is named after getting rocked at the one-yard line to lose the game to your favorite NFL team. Anyways, big props to Donovan McNabb (28 points) and Ronnie Brown (41 points) for carrying me this week. Looks like that Maurice Jones-Drew (9 fantasy points the entire season) for Ronnie Brown (62 points) trade before the season was a pretty sweet move on my part. I really hated my team going into the season, but I guess it could be worse…I could’ve drafted Drew Brees.
Robinson Cano & Co. leads Bot’s Batters, 9-1
There’s still a week left in my third-place game matchup with Bot’s Batters, but with a 9-1 lead it’s pretty much over. Huge weeks for both Brad Hawpe (3 HR, 10 RBI) and the half-man, half-God Joba Chamberlain (0.00 ERA, 0.27 WHIP, SV, 8 K) decided this one. All I care about is adding that little 3rd place trophy to my Yahoo! Trophy collection which is the ultimate status symbol for a nerd that has been playing fantasy baseball since the dial-up internet days of 1997 (i.e. myself).
Fantasy NASCAR, first place lead down to 117 points (I can't publish my team name here...)
It’s been a huge downward spiral for my fantasy NASCAR team. In mid-July, I was in first place by over 350 points and ranked 2,243rd nationally (99th percentile). I can’t get too mad at myself for this one though. I had to start Jimmie in my “A” group because he was on the pole but Ryan Newman screwed me once again with another poor finish. A nice 21st place finish from my “C” group guy Paul Menard was encouraging. I just have to hold on for dear life in this league.
The Shots Chick Pick this week: Jennie Finch
Quite possibly the only hot chick to ever play softball.
See you next week.
