The Shots archive
BUBBLE TROUBLE
Derek Schultz
We're getting down to the final days of the regular season, and it's time to examine the crowded NCAA Tournament bubble. I grouped the teams in three separate categories which you'll see below:
It's bubble time!
The New York Mets Division – in unless they completely fall on their face
Boston College (20-9, 8-6 ACC)
RPI: 47 - SOS: 43
vs. RPI Top 50: 4-6 - vs. RPI Top 100: 8-7
Quality wins: at North Carolina, Duke, Florida state
Bad losses: Harvard, at Saint Louis
Even though their only good non-league win is Providence, Boston College still has a solid all-around resume. Take out the bad losses to Harvard and Saint Louis and the Eagles are an NCAA Tournament lock. BC can wrap things up with wins in their final two regular season games against conference lightweights N.C. State and Georgia Tech. That would put them at 10-6 in ACC play and ensure their at-large status.
Wisconsin (18-10, 9-7 Big Ten)
RPI: 32 - SOS: 6
vs. RPI Top 50: 4-8 - RPI Top 100: 9-9
Quality wins: Illinois, Ohio State, at Virginia Tech
Bad losses: at Iowa, at Norhtwestern
Wins in six of their last seven games and a good effort at Michigan State has put the Badgers on the right side of the bubble. Though they face a tough test on the road at Minnesota, Wisconsin should be safe as long as the don’t do the unthinkable – lose to Indiana in the home finale. Their computer profile is outstanding, and they did step out of a tough Big Ten to play Connecticut, Marquette, Texas, and Virginia Tech.
Tennessee (18-10, 9-5 SEC)
RPI: 20 - SOS: 2
vs. RPI Top 50: 6-6 - RPI Top 100: 7-10
Quality wins: Marquette (N), Florida (twice)
Bad losses: at Auburn, Ole Miss, Kentucky (twice)
In any other year, Tennessee would probably be in bad shape. Their computer numbers are great because of the strong non-league schedule they played, but the best way I can describe them is: “eh”. Since jumping out to a 5-0 start, Tennessee has only one winning streak (three games: Marquette, Belmont, LA Lafayette). The Vols also lost consecutive road games at Ole Miss and Kentucky by a combined 35 points in mid-February. Even with a loss at South Carolina on Thursday, the Vols still should be in good shape as they have the best profile outside of LSU in the garbage SEC.
Ohio State (19-9, 9-8 Big Ten)
RPI: 36 - SOS: 27
vs. RPI Top 50: 6-8 - vs. RPI Top 100: 8-9
Quality wins: Butler, Purdue, at Miami
Bad losses: at Northwestern, West Virginia by 28
The Buckeyes avoided Bubble disaster by holding off pesky Iowa on Tuesday night. That means that they are just a home win over Northwestern away from completing a 10-8 Big Ten season. This isn’t the kind of resume that “wows” me, but it’s solid enough where only a major upset loss (i.e. vs. Northwestern again) could derail their hopes for March.
Also in this group: UNLV, Oklahoma State, Dayton
The Jimmy Fallon Division – safe for now, but there’s a chance that they can ruin it for themselves
Dude, you're not funny
Texas A&M (21-8, 7-7 Big 12)
RPI: 34 - SOS: 37
vs. RPI Top 50: 4-5 - vs. RPI Top 100: 7-8
Quality wins: LSU, Arizona, Texas
Bad losses: Kansas State, Tulsa (N)
The Aggies have rattled off four straight league wins to come back from the grave and on to the bubble. They have a pair of very nice non-conference wins over SEC-leader LSU as well as Arizona. They’ll have to at least split the next two – at Colorado and Missouri – to keep themselves in the conversation. An 8-8 league finish with a win in the Big 12 Tourney first round should be enough. But, if A&M beats Colorado and Missouri, they’d likely punch their ticket.
Virginia Tech (17-11, 7-7 ACC)
RPI: 59 - SOS: 37
vs. RPI Top 50: 4-7 - vs. RPI Top 100: 5-8
Quality wins: at Wake Forest, at Clemson
Bad losses: at Georgia, at Virginia, Seton Hall (N)
It just wouldn’t be March without analyzing Virginia Tech’s Bubble status! The Hokies are back in good shape after a nice road win at Tourney-bound Clemson and will have two chances to solidify themselves with games remaining vs. North Carolina and at Florida State. I would have to believe that an 8-8 ACC finish with five wins against Top 50 would be enough in a year like this. However, lose both of those and the Hokies might be on the outside looking in. Tech’s resume is far better than fellow ACC Bubblelites Maryland and Miami.
Creighton (25-6, 14-4 Missouri Valley)
RPI: 38 - SOS: 105
vs. RPI Top 50: 1-0 - vs. RPI Top 100: 10-4
Quality wins: Dayton
Bad losses: Drake, at Wichita State
Thanks to a ten-game winning streak, the Blue Jays have gone from Tournament afterthought to one of the sexy mid-major at-large candidates. In a weak year for Tournament-caliber mid-majors, Creighton’s resume really stands out. They have only played one game against a team in the RPI Top 50 (Dayton) but they came through for their marquee win. Ten wins against the Top 100 is nothing to sneeze at either. Creighton is the #2 seed in the Missouri Valley Tournament that starts this weekend, and they’ll have to sweat it out come Selection Sunday if they don’t advance to at least the Championship game.
Maryland (18-11, 7-8 ACC)
RPI: 57 - SOS: 20
vs. RPI Top 50: 4-10 - vs. RPI Top 100: 7-10
Quality wins: North Carolina, Michigan State (N)
Bad losses: Morgan State, Georgetown by 27
The Terps represent one of the challenges that the Selection Committee faces each season: Does a team that has multiple chances against top flight competition (14) but only comes through a handful of times (4) deserve an NCAA Tournament bid? Out of all the bubble teams, no squad has a better pair of wins than Maryland who knocked off Carolina and Michigan State. In a normal year they would probably be out (like Tennessee), but if the season ended today, it’d be hard to not extend a bid to Maryland. A loss at Virginia in the season finale would end their hopes.
Also in this group: Arizona, San Diego State, Minnesota
The Mike Davis Division – barely breathing
At least they aren't throwing trash on your lawn in Birmingham, Mike...
Penn State (20-9, 9-7 Big Ten)
RPI: 64 - SOS: 91
vs. RPI Top 50: 5-8 - vs. RPI Top 100: 6-10
Quality wins: at Michigan State, at Illinois, Purdue
Bad losses: Rhode Island (N)
Over the past few seasons, the Selection Committee has made it clear that if you don’t challenge yourselves in the non-conference portion of your schedule, you will not get an at-large bid (see: Syracuse 2007, 2008). With a non-league SOS of 305, apparently the Nittany Lions didn’t learn this lesson. They have a trio of wins against the top teams in the Big Ten, including road victories at Michigan State and at Illinois. Finishing up with a season-sweep of Illinois (who they play Thursday night) and a win at Iowa would go a long way. Could a team that went 11-7 in the RPI’s #2 conference possibly be left out? That remains to be seen…
Providence (18-11, 10-7 Big East)
RPI: 67 - SOS: 46
vs. RPI Top 50: 2-7 - vs. RPI Top 100: 5-11
Quality wins: Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Cincinnati (twice)
Bad losses: Northeastern, Notre Dame by 19
The Friars beat Rutgers to clinch a winning record in the best conference in America. Five Top 100 wins don’t jump out but a win over then-#1 Pittsburgh is a nice feather in their cap. PC’s only good non-league win was Rhode Island and like Penn State, the rest of their non-conference schedule was extremely weak (their computer profile also sucks). Asking Providence to win at Villanova is tough, but they’ll have to get at least two wins in the Big East Tournament to feel safe.
Miami (17-10, 6-8 ACC)
RPI: 41 - SOS: 10
vs. RPI Top 50: 4-7 - vs. RPI Top 100: 6-10
Quality wins: Wake Forest, Florida State, Boston College (twice)
Bad losses: at N.C. State
If I have one universal rule for at-large consideration, it’s that you absolutely have to be at least .500 in your league to warrant consideration. How you could possibly deem a squad that had a losing record in their conference as NCAA Tournament-worthy is baffling to me. That being said, Miami has a great chance to finish up with a pair of wins (Georgia Tech, at N.C. State) to even up their league mark at 8-8, and their computer profile is outstanding. It basically comes down to how many bids the Selection Committee is willing to give the ACC.
Florida (21-8, 8-6 SEC)
RPI: 50 - SOS: 91
vs. RPI Top 50: 2-6 - vs. RPI Top 100: 5-7
Quality wins: Washington (N), South Carolina?
Bad losses: at Georgia, at Kentucky
Florida missed a golden opportunity with Sunday’s home loss to Tennessee. They are now in serious trouble of following up back-to-back National Championships with back-to-back NIT appearances. Florida does have a nice non-league win over Washington but they just haven’t done enough in their overall resume. Their home game against Kentucky on Saturday is a virtual Bubble elimination game. If they win that one, and obviously beat Mississippi State on Wednesday, they’ll give themselves a chance.
Also in this group: Kentucky, Rhode Island, St. Mary’s
The Macarena Division – dead and gone, and they’re never coming back
No. Stop it. You're done. Give up.
Georgetown (15-13, 6-11 Big East) – their loss to St. John’s was the final nail in the coffin of an extremely disappointing season. The Hoyas went from a top ten team in December to a 6-11 Big East record.
Notre Dame (16-12, 7-10 Big East) – they breathed their last breath Monday night against Villanova, and now will have to win the Big East Tournament to get into the Dance. The Irish were ultimately done in by a seven-game midseason losing streak from which they were never able to recover. Blame the schedule (which was brutal) if you want, but the fact remains that a team with as much talent as the Irish have has no excuse for a 16-12 mark.
Cincinnati (18-12, 8-9 Big East) – no team hurt themselves more than Cincinnati this past week. With a chance to separate themselves from fellow Bubble-dwellers like Providence, Georgetown, and Notre Dame, the Bearcats lost by 24 at Syracuse and fell by 11 at South Florida. They’ve lost 4 of 5 and they just aren’t a viable at-large candidate right now.
Kansas State (20-10, 8-7 Big 12) – the Wildcats are kind of like Penn State except they lack the quality wins to stay in the conversation. The Wildcats played a pathetic non-league schedule, which included losses to really bad Iowa and Oregon teams. Their only good non-league win was Cleveland State, and that obviously isn’t enough.
SHOOTING THE REST OF THE SPORTS WORLD:
Swish: Butler
