The Shots archive
2008 NCAA TOURNAMENT PICKS
Derek Schultz
Unlike last year, I didn't feel very good when filling out this bracket. Ever since George Mason's Cinderella Final Four run in 2006, the Selection Committee has gone out of their way to ensuring that the top seeds advance as far as possible. Last year's tournament, where there were only two major upsets (VCU over Duke, UNLV over Wisconsin) and all four one-seeds advanced to the Elite 8, was perhaps the worst Tournament ever. Not only were the first two rounds all chalk, the Final Four and Championship games were never in doubt. At first glance, this bracket looks to be primarily chalk as well, but I decided to go out on a limb by taking Louisville out of the brutal East Region, Georgetown out of the Midwest, Texas out of the South and UCLA out of the West. For the first time since picking Kansas back-to-back years in 1997 and 1998, I have picked UCLA to win it all for the 2nd straight year. Hopefully they don't burn me as bad as the Jayhawks did.
It’s the most wonderful time of the year! Here are my game-by-game picks:EAST REGION – Overview
This is by far the toughest region in the bracket which I can’t understand because North Carolina is supposed to be the #1 overall seed. Frankly, Tennessee not getting a #1 seed when they were #1 in the RPI all year and have the best wins out of anybody is a joke. What’s even more of a joke is that they got placed in the same region as North Carolina. Also, say what you want about the way that Indiana has been playing, but the fact that they got an 8 seed and Michigan State got a 5 is an absolute crock. Yes, the Hoosiers lost to Penn State and to Minnesota on a fluke shot. But, didn’t the committee remember that Michigan State lost to Penn State as well, scored 36 points in a loss to Iowa and finished 4th in a pathetic Big Ten? What, do we just throw that out the window because they beat an NIT-bound Ohio State team in the Big Ten Tournament Quarterfinals and beat Texas in December? Absolutely mystifying.
EAST REGION – First Round
#1 North Carolina over #16 Mount St. Mary’s – One day a #16 seed will beat a #1 seed. Friday is not that day.
#8 Indiana over #9 Arkansas – I'm picking more with my heart than with my head here. Then again, a common rule of thumb for me has always been to pick against mid-level SEC teams. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter because the winner of this game has no chance against the Tar Heels.
#4 Washington State over #13 Winthrop – The Eagles will put up a fight in this one, but this is perhaps the worst of their last four Tournament squads so I went against them here.
#5 Notre Dame over #12 George Mason – A mid-major team like the Patriots have no answer for someone like Luke Harangody.
#11 St. Joseph’s over #6 Oklahoma – This was a gimmie pick: A non-BCS team from a competitive league vs. an overseeded power conference team that has no business being where they are at. Also, the Sooners were 0-5 against Kansas, Texas and Kansas State this year. I am looking forward to the battle of St. Joe's Pat Calathes against OU's freshman phenom Blake Griffin - two players that play completely different styles.
#3 Louisville over #14 Boise State – Rarely does a Rick Pitino coached team fall in a game where they are heavily favored.
#7 Butler over #10 South Alabama – I really, really wanted to pick the Jaguars, but Butler always finds ways to win.
#2 Tennessee over #15 American – You know that I actually picked 15-seed Winthrop to beat Tennessee in the first round of 2006? If not for Chris Lofton’s fluke shot, I would’ve been an overtime away from being right.
EAST REGION – Second Round
#1 North Carolina over #8 Indiana – It will be interesting to see two of the better big men in the country face-off in this matchup. I expect DJ White to be in early foul trouble, Eric Gordon to go 1-of-8 from 3-point range and Carolina to cruise by 12-15 points.
#5 Notre Dame over #4 Washington State – This is not a good matchup for Notre Dame because Wazzu is an outstanding team defensively. However, I’m leaning big on Harangody once again in this game and I think Notre Dame grinds it out.
#3 Louisville over #11 St. Joseph’s – The Cardinals are too athletic for the Hawks.
#2 Tennessee over #7 Butler- The fact is that Butler is going to have to score 85-90 points to win this game and they are just not built to do that. Unless Pete Campbell and the other long-distance snipers on Butler go crazy, they won’t be able to keep up with the high-powered Vols offense.
EAST REGION – Regional Semifinal
#1 North Carolina over #5 Notre Dame – This is a matchup between the two best big men in America, with apologies to Roy Hibbert (overrated), DJ White (undersized), and Michael Beasley (not physical enough). The Heels and Irish play similar styles but ultimately Carolina has too many playmakers whereas Notre Dame relies to heavily on Harangody/McAlarney.
#3 Louisville over #2 Tennessee – The Vols have been choke-artists in the Tournament before and the Committee didn't do them any favors by giving them a rocky road to the Regional final. Louisville has a big advantage down low with David Padgett and like Tennessee, they have several players that can score. I think the Vols could be hungover from a tough win over Butler and the Cardinals will march on.
EAST REGION – Regional Final
#3 Louisville over #1 North Carolina - Tyler Hansborough is obviously the focal point of Carolina's offense but Danny Green (11.6 ppg) and Wayne Ellington (16.7 ppg) are the X-factors. Earl Clark and even Terrence Williams are big guards that can defend and neutralize that duo. I don't love Padgett, but he's good enough to keep Hansborough reasonably in check. Plus, Rick Pitino can coach circles around Roy Williams.
EAST REGION CHAMPION: Louisville
MIDWEST REGION – Overview
I was thrilled to see Kansas get a #1 seed because that meant I was definitely going to have at least one non-#1 seed go to the Final Four. The last few years, the Jayhawks have become the Huggins-era Cincinnati team: win 30+ games, be ranked in the top five all year, lose before the Final Four. There is no reason to expect differently this year. I thought Wisconsin was under-seeded as a #2. As bad as the Big Ten is, the Badgers lost just four games, were the regular season and Big Ten Tournament champions and beat Texas in Austin – I think that warrants a #2. USC/Kansas State is an interesting matchup and it proves my theory that the NCAA Selection Committee does not just randomly pair these teams. How else can you explain two of the top five freshman going head-to-head in Round 1?
MIDWEST REGION – First Round
#1 Kansas over #16 Portland State – Yeah, I'm feelin' pretty good about this one.
#9 Kent State over #8 UNLV – The Golden Flashes are extremely balanced offensively (four starters in double-figures) and really won me over with that Bracket Buster win at Saint Mary’s a few weeks ago.
#5 Clemson over #12 Villanova – Schultz Rule #1: Never pick the last team to get in the Tournament to win. Villanova is awful.
#13 Siena over #4 Vanderbilt – I’m protected with this pick because I think Clemson won’t have much of a problem with either of these teams. The Saints beat Stanford this season but did lose five games in the MAAC. This is a sexy pick, I hate the SEC, and I have a good friend that went to school at Siena – so book it.
#6 USC over #11 Kansas State – USC is extremely, extremely dangerous and reminds me a lot of last year’s Texas team. They can beat anybody on any given night (at UCLA) and also lose to anybody on any given night (Mercer). If they get by the Wildcats, they have a legitimate chance to go to the Final Four.
#3 Wisconsin over #14 Cal State-Fullerton – Don’t sleep on this game. Remember last year the Badgers got all they could handle from Texas A&M Corpus-Christie. Beware the satellite campuses!
#10 Davidson over #7 Gonzaga – If I owned a house, I would lay it on this game. This year’s Gonzaga isn’t much better than the mediocre 2006-07 version.
#2 Georgetown over #15 UMBC – My buddy’s dog Auggie has the Retrievers advancing in his bracket. Sadly, I haven’t seen anyone else pick UMBC.
MIDWEST REGION – Second Round
#1 Kansas over #9 Kent State – I saw what North Carolina did to Kent State back in February (90-61 win in Chapel Hill). The Jayhawks are even more athletic than the Heels and I doubt Kent State can keep up.
#5 Clemson over #13 Siena – I usually never pick Clemson, but I like the way the Tigers have been playing as of late.
#6 USC over #3 Wisconsin – A rule of thumb is to always take the hard-nosed defensive team over the flashy offensive team, but I just can’t do it here. I’d rather watch Tim Duncan or the Colts offense than watch Wisconsin play basketball. Soooo boring.
#2 Georgetown over #10 Davidson – I can’t pick against Georgetown until they play a team that can matchup with them down low.
MIDWEST REGION – Regional Semifinals
#1 Kansas over #5 Clemson – You have to pick your spots and I’m not taking the bait on this one. Clemson is not great defensively and in order to beat Kansas, you have to at least limit their scoring opportunities.
#2 Georgetown over #6 USC – I went back and forth on this one, but I got burned on Texas last year and I’m afraid the same thing could happen with the Trojans. I’m not so sure SC can get out of the first round, so how can I pick them in my Elite 8?
MIDWEST REGION – Regional Final
#2 Georgetown over #1 Kansas – I don’t love Georgetown, in fact, I think last year’s team was better than this team. That being said, Kansas doesn’t perform well in close games while the Hoyas do. Ok, I don’t have an honest answer as to why Georgetown will beat Kansas. I just can’t pick a Bill Self coached team to go to the Final Four. I just can’t.
MIDWEST REGION CHAMPION: Georgetown
SOUTH REGION - Overview
Every year there is one region that can screw up your entire bracket. I have a feeling that THIS is that region. Memphis may have only lost one game this season but it was their biggest game of the year, at home, with a national audience, and they blew it. The bottom line is that a team that shoots that poorly from the free-throw line cannot get to the Final Four, much less win a National Championship. So who is going to come out of this region? Pitt has looked like a team on a mission over the past two weeks, while if Michigan State could finally put it together and play the way they are capable of playing (103 points vs. Indiana) they could go deep as well. Marquette is dangerous when they hit shots and Stanford doesn't win pretty, but they do win. I'm going with Texas who has three victories over top-five teams: Kansas, Tennessee and at UCLA. But, I'd be lying if I told you I felt 100% comfortable in picking Pittsburgh (who NEVER gets past the Sweet 16) and a Rick Barnes coached team in my Regional final...
SOUTH REGION – First Round
#1 Memphis over #16 UT-Arlington – You know I’ve always loved the Rangers’ ballpark in Arlington. They should have the homerun derby there every year so the people can hurt each other fighting for baseballs in the grass behind the Centerfield wall.
#8 Mississippi State over #9 Oregon – Um, the Ducks should be playing in the NIT right now.
#12 Temple over #5 Michigan State – The Spartans can’t score points. Also, they either go on a run (Elite 8 2003, Final Four 2005) or lose in the first round (NC State 2002, Nevada 2004), I’ll go with the First Round exit this year.
#4 Pittsburgh over #13 Oral Roberts – I swear that if ORU pulls a Bradley and knocks off Pitt, I will never pick the Panthers to advance past the first round ever again. My bracket was in the garbage 28 hours into the Tournament.
#6 Marquette over #11 Kentucky – This is a 50/50 game but Marquette’s guards are too good defensively to let Ramel Bradley and Joe Crawford operate.
#3 Stanford over #14 Cornell – Seeing an Ivy League school try to defend two 7-foot twins is going to be hilarious.
#10 Saint Mary’s over #7 Miami – This wins the award for the worst game of the Tournament. Somebody explain to me how Miami, who went 8-8 in a crappy ACC, got a 7 seed?
#2 Texas over #15 Austin Peay – I think the only school I ever picked that was somebody’s full name (Robert Morris, Stephen F. Austin, James Madison, etc.) was George Washington. My dream is to one day pick Lamar to advance in an NCAA Tournament game. Poor Lamar.
SOUTH REGION – Second Round
#1 Memphis over #8 Mississippi State – The Tigers are too good to lose to a team from the dreadful SEC West.
#4 Pittsburgh over #12 Temple – Don’t do it Pitt, don’t you screw me over…
#3 Stanford over #6 Marquette – This is a game that I really struggled with because both of these teams have sucked in the Tournament over the past 3-4 years. I usually take guard play over frontlines, but Marquette has no size at all and I have no idea how they can contain the Lopez boys.
#2 Texas over #10 Saint Mary’s – Ugh. Next?
SOUTH REGION – Regional Semifinal
#4 Pittsburgh over #1 Memphis – I refuse to believe that all four #1 seeds can advance to the Elite 8 like they did last year. It’s not a question of IF Memphis will lose, it’s WHEN. Here’s hoping that it’s the Sweet 16 instead of the Elite 8. The Panthers front-line of Sam Young and DeJaun Blair has a big edge over the Memphis frontcourt (Joey Dorsey and...?). If they can slow down the Memphis fastbreak and wear them out physcially, a win is a possibility.
#2 Texas over #3 Stanford – The Cardinal are a slow, half-court team while Texas can get up and down the floor and also can spread the defense with their shooters. I don’t think this game will be close.
SOUTH REGION – Regional Final
#2 Texas over #4 Pittsburgh – This game is in Houston. No team has taken more advantage of the pod system than Texas. The Longhorns played regional games in San Antonio in 2003 and were able to knock off a better Connecticut team and Michigan State to advance to the Final Four that year. Where you play is not always fool-proof (see: Louisville losing to Texas A&M in Lexington last year, Louisville beating Wisconsin in Milwaukee in 2003) but it does play a factor.
SOUTH REGION CHAMPION: Texas
WEST REGION - Overview
This is the region that I feel most comfortable with which likely means that this will be the region that causes me fits. I think UCLA will walk into the Final Four, but the bottom half of the region looks extremely shaky. Baylor could beat Purdue and Xavier, and I don't think it would be out of the question for West Virginia or Arizona to beat a Duke team that peaked in mid-February. I took the safe route and took mostly chalk but I wouldn't be surprised if any of the teams from the bottom half of the bracket (outside of Georgia and Belmont) made the Regional final.
WEST REGION – First Round
#1 UCLA over #16 Mississippi Valley State – Did You Know: Jerry Rice attended Mississippi Valley State from 1981-1984..
#8 BYU over #9 Texas A&M – BYU can score points like crazy. A&M (8 of 16 conference games with 60 or less points) cannot.
#5 Drake over #12 Western Kentucky – I’m wary of the Hilltoppers (and Pike product Courtney Lee) but I feel like Drake has something to prove. Also, WKU doesn't play defense.
#4 Connecticut over #13 San Diego – San Diego seems to be a sexy upset pick and I can't figure out why. Like Georgetown, UConn’s front-line is going to cause lesser teams fits on the interior. San Diego's forward and 2nd leading scorer Rob Jones is 6'6 - enough said.
#6 Purdue over #11 Baylor –When Baylor shows up, they are very tough to beat. If Purdue showed up before halftime, then they would win every game by 20 points.
#3 Xavier over #14 Georgia – Georgia was a nice story, however they didn’t beat Tennessee and they didn’t beat Vanderbilt in the SEC Tournament. They would’ve lost to either of those teams by 20+. People can't get off the Xavier bandwagon fast enough, and I'm jumping on.
#7 West Virginia over #10 Arizona – I think if you polled everyone in America, 50% are picking West Virginia and 50% are picking Zona. In the last month, Arizona only has one win against a team not named Oregon State (0-16 in Pac-10 play). There’s the deciding factor for me.
#2 Duke over #15 Belmont – People always complain about Duke being over-seeded and receiving preferential treatment in the NCAA Tournament Selection process. After seeing their draw this year, it’s hard to argue with them.
WEST REGION – Second Round
#1 UCLA over #8 BYU - Trent Plaisted is an underrated big man so at least the Cougars have someone that can matchup with Kevin Love. He scored 24 points against North Carolina and 21 more against Louisville early in the season. With as tough as the Bruins are on D, I have to assume they'll find a way to defend BYU's three-point attack.
#4 Connecticut over #5 Drake - If I filled out more than one bracket, I would split this game 50/50. Drake only has two players over 6'6, but 6'8 Jonathan Cox can stretch the UConn defense with his ability to knock down three-pointers. I like the Huskies close, but wouldn't be the least bit suprised if the Bulldogs pulled the rabbit out of their hat.
#3 Xavier over #6 Purdue - This is a tough game to pick because these two teams are so similar. One big advantage for the Musketeers is that senior Stanley Burrell (one of the best defenders in the country) will likely be matched up against Purdue's go-to-freshman E'Twaun Moore. I don't like that matchup for the Boilers. Purdue has a defensive stopper of their own in Chris Kramer, but who do you put him up against? Xavier has five players that average between 10 and 12 points.
#2 Duke over #7 West Virginia - Do you know that in all the NCAA Tournament apperances he had at Cincinnati, Bob Huggins NEVER defeated a higher-seeded team? The Mountaineers live and die from beyond the arc and Duke's perimeter defense is outstanding.
#2 Texas over #3 Stanford – The Cardinal are a slow, half-court team while Texas can get up and down the floor and also can spread the defense with their shooters. I don’t think this game will be close.
WEST REGION – Regional Semifinal
#1 UCLA over #4 Connecticut - UCLA has been to back-to-back Final Fours while Jeff Adrien is the only UConn player with any semblance of NCAA Tournament experience. This is the worst possible matchup for UConn because UCLA is a more experienced and more talented version of their team.
#3 Xavier over #2 Duke - This will be a battle of two of the most balanced offensive teams in the country. I think Josh Duncan will be the X-factor (no pun intended), and send the Musketeers into the Elite 8.
WEST REGION - Regional Final
#1 UCLA over #3 Xavier - The Bruins suck from three-point range and that could end up hurting them in the long run. But, I love Ben Howland's aggressive defense and UCLA will pull it out in a low-scoring game.
WEST REGION CHAMPION: UCLA
FINAL FOUR
#2 Georgetown over #3 Louisville - The teams split their two meetings this season and both were hotly contested. Louisville takes a lot of chances on defense and forces a lot of turnovers. What I love about this Hoyas team is that they are very patient on offense and they pick their spots. I think these two teams will battle down-to-the-wire but Georgetown will make the plays down the stretch to win.
#1 UCLA over #2 Texas - The Longhorns will come into this one extremely confident after their win at Pauley Pavillion earlier in the year. But, that was a long time ago and UCLA will be better prepared this time around. Darren Collison's poise and leadership will help UCLA slow the game down . The Longhorns don't play well from behind and will hit the panic button early, helping UCLA pull away late.
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
#1 UCLA over #2 Georgetown - This isn't the first rodeo for either of these teams as both went down in the Final Four a season ago. Roy Hibbert's lack of agressiveness prevents him from being a factor for Georgetown. UCLA will lock down the perimeter and not allow DaJuan Summers or Jonathan Wallace many open looks from three-point range. It won't be pretty but UCLA will make Georgetown play their game. The Bruins prevail 74-70 to win their first non-tainted National Championship since 1975.
