The Shots archive
THE DRAFT DEMON
Derek Schultz
It seems like that the NFL Draft is a huge deal to just about every team in football. Prospects are poked, prodded, and timed for months, while teams try to determine "football speed" and fits for their offensive/defensive schemes. It is an exciting couple of weeks post-Super Bowl and pre-Draft – exciting but extremely stressful and hectic for most fanbases. Yet among all the craziness, the only fans generally sitting back and relaxing are Colts fans because the omniscient Bill Polian is steering the ship.
Since taking over the reigns of the Colts in 1998, Polian’s keen draft eye has lifted the once-laughingstock franchise into a perennial contender. When you take a closer look at Polian’s draft success, the results are alarming (in a good way). The Colts are only one of two teams in the NFL that have every single member of their 2006 and 2007 Draft classes still with the team. In fact, 19 of the Colts’ 21 current starters have spent their entire careers in Indianapolis. 16 of those players were drafted by Polian, who has also made a living of signing undrafted free-agents as well. LB Gary Brackett was one of the first to sign on after being passed over in the 2003 NFL Draft. C Jeff Saturday was waived by the Baltimore Ravens after just six weeks, and he was picked up by the Colts before the start of the 1999 season. OT Ryan Lilja was plucked off the Kansas City Chiefs after spending some time on their practice squad as an undrafted free agent in 2004. Players like DT Ed Johnson, DL Darrell Reid, DE Jeff Charleston, RB Kenton Keith, and LB Ramon Guzman are all bench contributors that were undrafted but signed by Polian.
He's laughing because he knows something you don't
All of those statistics prove Polian’s draft prowess, but perhaps the biggest indication of his success has been the Colts’ first selections under Polian:
1998- Peyton Manning (1st overall)
1999- Edgerrin James (4th overall)
2000- Rob Morris (28th overall)
2001- Reggie Wayne (30th overall)
2002- Dwight Freeney (11th overall)
2003- Dallas Clark (24th overall)
2004- Bob Sanders (44th overall)
2005- Marlin Jackson (29th overall)
2006- Joseph Addai (30th overall)
2007- Anthony Gonzalez (32nd overall)
Those 10 players have combined to play in 20 Pro Bowls. That’s pretty amazing considering that all those Pro Bowls have come out of just two top-ten picks, and three top-twenty selections. The worst pick of that bunch, LB Rob Morris, even had two 100+ tackle seasons and was a good special teams player. He at least has had a seven-year NFL career which is a lot more than you can say for most First Round picks. All the rest of that group besides Edgerrin James, is a current starter who is still with the team. Though Peyton Manning, Dwight Freeney and Reggie Wayne are all indications of high picks that turned out well, it is more impressive what Bill Polian and the Colts have done in the later rounds. DE Robert Mathis was a 5th round selection, S Antoine Bethea was drafted in the 6th round. Five total starters were drafted in the 4th round or later.
Late-round steals like Bethea and Mathis have been key contributors
I obviously haven’t scanned every single Draft list for the past ten years from every single team, but if you can find one team in the League that even has six of their last 10 first selections starting for them, I’d love to see it. Unlike baseball and even the NBA, free agency is not the determining factor of success. If you Draft well, you win. Look at the Super Bowl Champion New York Giants and their 2007 Draft Class. Aaron Ross, Steve Smith, Kevin Boss, Ahmad Bradshaw, Michael Johnson, Jay Aflord, Steve DeOssie all saw the field and all contributed in some capacity. Meanwhile, only two players from the 1998-2004 Draft classes remain on the 1-15 Miami Dolphins (LT Vernon Casey and S Yeremiah Bell). Coincidence? I doubt it.
So when an unknown center named Mike Pollak was taken with the Colts first selection in the 2nd round, Colts’ fans didn’t boo like Eagles fans, or throw stuff like Jets fans, or pout like Dolphins fans. If you are a Colts fan and you were sitting at home you were probably thinking, “I have no idea who that is, but he’ll probably end up being a Pro Bowler.”
Just one of the many luxuries of having Bill Polian run your Draft board.
SHOOTING THE REST OF THE SPORTS WORLD:
Swish: Dwight Howard
Maybe it’s time we started bringing up Dwight Howard’s name when talking about the Kobes, CP3s, and LeBrons of the NBA Playoffs. Howard recorded his THIRD 20-20 of the postseason, after grabbing 21 points and equaling that total in rebounds during Orlando’s series-winning Game 5 victory over Toronto. He became the first player since Wilt Chamberlain in 1971 to record at least three 20-20s in postseason play. Howard has averaged 22.6 points and 18.2 rebounds in the playoffs thus far. Even though the Pistons have looked a bit sluggish in their series with Philadelphia, I don’t think the Magic have the experience yet to knock them off. However, Dwight Howard and this team could become a force in the East for years to come.
Howard continues to be one of the overlooked superstars of this year's playoffs
Brick: Boston Celtics
Shame on me, and shame on all of you for buying into this team. We should know better, considering that Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen have collectively won absolutely zilch in their NBA careers. The Big Three, the Boston Three-Party, or whatever else they want to call themselves, allowed a 37-win Atlanta team to even up their best-of-seven First Round series with a Game 4 win on Monday night. The reason I picked Boston to lose in the Conference Finals (to Detroit, who isn’t looking much better) is because of the playoff futility of the Big Three. In their combined careers, Pierce, Allen, and Garnett have won just eight playoff series, and lost seventeen. Though all three players have had outstanding regular season success, their overall playoff record is just 53-74. That record includes zero titles, zero Conference titles, and they have made it past the first round a combined 5 times in 17 playoff appearances. These guys don’t know how to win, and you could see it when they were deferring to James freakin’ Posey down the stretch in Game 4. I still think Boston will find a way to beat these young Hawks, but I’m not so sure they can even get by Cleveland. The Cavs can rely on LeBron to come through in the clutch – who are the C’s going to rely on? if they started a series tomorrow, San Antonio or Los Angeles would beat them in five games. There is ZERO doubt in my mind.
Air Ball: Roger Clemens
Unless you’ve been living in a cave, you’ve probably heard about Roger Clemens and his affair with former Country star Mindy McCready. We had a discussion on the show the other day about whether an athlete’s off-the-field issues affected you as a fan. I don’t think there is a blanket answer and that everything should be dissected on a case-by-case basis. Personally, I break up the category of “off-the-field” issues into two separate parts: Illegal and legal. In Roger’s case, is it morally wrong to cheat on your wife? Yes. Does it make you a complete piece of trash? Absolutely it does. But, at the same time, it isn’t illegal. Roger Clemens' steroid allegations bothered me a lot more because it was illegal and it was a distraction to the team. What a player does legally in his personal life isn’t a concern to me, unless it affects his on-field production or if it becomes a distraction to the team (which it often does). Now, if it turns out that he committed statutory rape - he met McCready when she was just 15 - then that’s a whole different story. But if the relationship didn’t turn physical until it was legal, then Clemens’ affair isn’t any of my business. Philadelphia Eagles head coach Andy Reid’s home life and his kids’ drug problems aren’t any of my business. Shawn Kemp fathering 876 (actual number is 13, but you get my point) illegitimate children doesn’t concern me. Those issues certainly raise some red flags, and make me want to throw up, but it’s not my business. That being said, Roger Clemens performance-enhancing drug use is my business, and so is Shawn Kemp’s arrest for possession of cocaine. An athlete's trashy personal life may not being any of my business, but it definitely gets rid of any ounce of respect I’ve ever had for those certain athletes. Especially, it ruins any respect I’ve ever had for Roger Clemens. I feel for his wife and his kids because though what Roger did isn’t illegal, it certainly is both painful and embarrassing. In the span of just 10 months Clemens has gone from baseball immortal to low-life loser.
You sure know how to pick 'em Rog!
Swish: Chien Ming-Wang
After pitching seven scoreless innings in a 1-0 win over Cleveland on Sunday, Wang improved to 5-0 this season. Since the beginning of the 2006 season Wang has a Major League best 43 wins and an ERA just under 3.50. Wang is often overlooked when talking about the elite pitchers in baseball because his strikeout numbers are low and he doesn’t have overpowering stuff. Yet, the 28-year old is a consistent winner and rarely gets chased early. Now that 2008 is shaping up to be as successful as 2006 and 2007, isn’t it time to stop calling Wang’s success an anomaly and start admitting that he’s pretty damn good? I think so.
Brick: Ronaldo
Ronaldo is perhaps the only person in the world to have a worse week than Roger Clemens. Cocaine, tranvestite prostitutes, extortion - for the first time in the history of The Shots,
I don't think I'm touching this one... Hey, prostitution is legal in Brazil and it is his personal life, so I guess it's none of my business, right? (Side note: check out the picture of one of the
dudes girls that he allegedly hired, Albertino, at the bottom of the link. That is
priceless.
Air Ball: Barry Zito
Hopefully Barry Zito hasn’t hooked up with any 15-year olds at any karaoke bars lately, because that is the only way his season could be going worse than it is now. Zito, he of the $126 million dollar contract, just became baseball’s most expensive long-relief pitcher after being demoted to the bullpen by San Francisco. The southpaw lost his first six starts of 2007 (only the 3rd pitcher in 52 years to be 0-6 before May 1st) and has given up almost four times as many hits (40) as he has strikeouts (11) in just 28 2/3 innings pitched. Zito had one of the best seasons for a pitcher this decade during his Cy Young campaign of 2002 when he went 23-5 with a 2.75 ERA and 182 Ks. But since then he has averaged just 13 wins a season, and his strikeout total dropped by twenty each of the last three seasons. He throws what is likely the slowest four-seam fastball in baseball today (tops out at about 84 MPH on a good day), something that a Little Leaguer could hit. The problem is that he can no longer throw what used to be a devastating “12-6” curve for strikes so he has to rely on that molasses-slow four-seamer and an equally ineffective two-seamer that he just picked up. You could make the argument that Zito’s seven-year, $126 million deal was not only the worst contract in baseball history, but in sports history in general. It’s too bad because there isn’t a guy that gives back more to the community or does more for charities than Zito. He donates $400 for every batter he strikes out to Strikeouts for Troops, a charity which he created, benefiting hospitals for wounded soldiers. Here’s hoping that Zito can get his career back on track.
Zito's short stay in San Francisco has been a complete disaster
The Shots Fantasy Update
Apparently, I forgot to update this last week, so I apologize to those of you who are emotionally invested in my fantasy teams.
Cinderellas def. Robinson Cano & Co. II, 7-3 - Fantasy Baseball
I am now just 10-20 after the first three weeks, which is very frustrating because on paper this team shouldn’t be this bad. I picked up Russell Martin off of waivers after some idiot cut him (I LOVE public leagues), and my lineup includes Alex Rodriguez, BJ Upton, Brandon Phillips, and Carlos Guillen. Out of all of those, my best pick may have been backup OF Pat Burrell (.349/8/25) who has now taken Aaron Rowand’s starting spot. My pitching staff is a borderline disaster right now. I finally cut the cord on Eric Gagne and his 6.17 ERA and so far the Francisco Liriano (0-3, 11.32) experiment has crashed and burned. I’m willing to wait a few more weeks, but if this team continues to suck, I’m going to be forced to make some trades.
350 points, still in 8th place but only 119 points out of First – Fantasy NASCAR
Being in 8th place out of 12 teams right now is really irrelevant considering that I can make up 119 points in two weeks. I had a league-best 350 point week this week as Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt Jr, and Brian Vickers all finished in the top 13. It’s rare that I start a lineup with big boppers like that in one week, but I felt that at Talladega you have to go with your best guys. Hopefully the momentum will carry me into May.
Chuckie Three Stick-Up, 88 points – Fantasy Golf
Apparently, I still haven’t really figured out the strategy to winning in this. I usually go in on Saturday and replace anybody that missed the cut (like Trevor Immelman +13, and Chad Campbell +7). But, when everybody you have behind them sucks, what’s the point of wasting their starts? Luke Donald (42 points) scored almost half of my team’s total but finished back in 19th place. I’m only 103 points out of 2nd to last place, but with the way things are going, it might as well be a 500-point deficit. If I can somehow climb that mountain, I’ll be happy.
And by "You", I mean "Me"....at Fantasy Golf
The Shots What to Watch this week:
Oakland at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim of Lameness – Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday
It’s time to play contender or pretender with the A’s who played way over their heads in April. After Boston’s winless weekend in Tampa, I think the Angels are the best team in the American League. Oakland will send the three-headed monster of Greg Smith, Dana Eveland, and Justin Duchscherer to the hill. Laugh if you want, but those three pitchers are a combined 6-2 with a sparkling 2.68 ERA.
Philadelphia at Detroit - Thursday
With the Cavs, Hornets, Spurs, Jazz, and Lakers just one win away from advancing, this and Boston/Atlanta are the only series that have the potential to go the distance. Detroit cannot be beat if they dictate the pace of the game like they did in the 2nd half of Game 4 and most of Game 5. As long as they stay in their half-court offense, and don’t let Philly turn it into a track meet, I think they will be fine.
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis – Friday, Saturday Sunday
