During Friday’s show, I argued that if the Colts lost Sunday’s game at Houston, the AFC South title was out the question and things could get really, really bad. When the Colts fell behind the Texans 27-10 late in the fourth quarter, I was thinking that my comments were an understatement. But, with the help of a judgement-impaired backup quarterback and a pair of big plays from Gary Brackett and Reggie Wayne, suddenly things aren’t looking so bad. With the Colts evening up their record at 2-2, fans are split 50/50 over how they feel about the first quarter of the regular season. Let’s outline the two approaches:
Glass Half-Full
It could be worse for the Colts. They could be San Diego, Jacksonville, or (gasp) Cleveland. 2-2 isn’t great, but the Colts are still right in the thick of the playoff race in the AFC. Only one unbeaten (Tennessee) remains in the Conference, and if the season ended today, the Colts would be tied for the final Wild Card spot with the Jets and Dolphins. That’s pretty encouraging news considering that this team should be 0-4. Yes, Jacksonville needed a 51-yard field goal from Josh Scobee to beat them at Lucas Oil Stadium, but they grossly outplayed the Colts in that game. So did Chicago, so did Minnesota, and so did Houston for 55 minutes. Not only would the Colts have zero chance of making the playoffs with an 0-4 start, they’d potentially be looking at a 2001 reprise. That season, Edgerrin James tore his ACL and the Colts floundered to a 6-10 mark. They haven’t missed the playoffs since.
Peyton knows the Colts are fortunate to be 2-2
Indianapolis can also blame their early struggles on their challenging schedule. The Bears would be 5-0 if they didn’t blow two fourth quarter leads. Minnesota may be 2-3 but their strengths (strong running game, front seven) play to the Colts weaknesses. Jacksonville is Jacksonville, and Houston was a desperate team playing their first home game of the season. It's not the easiest first quarter of the regular season slate.
Injuries to the offensive line - Jeff Saturday, Tony Ugoh, Mike Pollak, and Ryan Lilja - haven’t helped things, and neither has losing reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year Bob Sanders for six weeks. At least now, the Colts are starting to get healthier. Peyton Manning hasn’t looked like the MVP of old, but he’s starting to show flashes of his old-self. Jeff Saturday looks to be nearing 100% after a partial MCL tear in the preseason, Marvin Harrison has been healthy enough to play, and Dwight Freeney has regained his explosiveness.
The injuries have forced the Colts into giving youngsters major minutes at key positions. Rookies Jamey Richard and Steve Justice have had a baptism by fire because of a dismantled offensive line. In the middle of the defensive line, 2007 seventh-round pick Keyunta Dawson and undrafted free agent rookie Eric Foster are manning the tackle positions, along with 49ers cast-off LaJuan Ramsey. H-Back Gijon Robinson, FB Darrell Reid, OG Dan Federkeil, and S Melvin Bullitt, are former undrafted free agents who have been thrusted into major roles. Once those players get more experience under their belts, things should improve.
Glass Half-Empty
It’s really tough to spin a four-game stretch in which the Colts have been outscored 94-83 and outrushed 755-251. It’s even tougher to feel good about needing miracle fourth-quarter comebacks against teams quarterbacked by Tavaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels. The mediocre 2-2 start can’t be blamed on the strength of schedule. You want to know about a tough opening schedule? Ask Cincinnati. They’ve already played the Giants, Titans, and Cowboys. The Colts would be lucky to stay within 10 of any of those teams at this point.
Sage Rosenfels won't be there to hand the Colts wins every week
Let’s get back to some of the statistics, because that’s where the proof is in the pudding. The Colts are dead last in the NFL in rush defense (188.5 yds) and rush offense (67.8 yds). The rush defense, or lack thereof, is mostly due to the ineffectiveness of the undersized duo of Foster and Dawson. I know the Colts have had some bad luck with big defensive tackles (see: Simon, Corey) and have played well with players deemed to be “undersized” like Raheem Brock and Booger McFarland. But, Dawson (6'3, 254) and Foster (6'2, 265) are smaller than most NFL starting linebackers (i.e. Shawn Merriman: 6'4, 272). When you have two guys that are getting pushed off the line of scrimmage five yards on every snap, then something has to be done. You can’t hope for the stars to magically align and the run defense to suddenly take a complete 180-degree turn like it did during their 2006 postseason run. It's just not going to happen again. The defense in general has been gashed by the likes of backup Sage Rosenfels (21-33, 246 yds, TD before last four minutes), and dominated by a makeshift Jaguars’ offensive line to the tune of 236 rushing yards. Unless the run defense specifically improves from an F-minus to a C-plus, there will be no Super Bowl – there won’t even be a postseason for this year’s Colts.
Slaton and Taylor had an easy time of it against the worst run defense in the NFL
At least the struggling rush offense can heap some of the blame on injuries to the offensive line. But, even with those injuries, a 67.8 yards per game average with a Pro Bowl RB (Joseph Addai), and a passing attack that remains one of the most feared in the NFL is inexcusable. If the first four games have taught us anything, it’s that Addai is simply a system running back. He’s a good back, but just about any halfway decent runner behind that line the last two years could duplicate Addai’s numbers. As the injuries have come, so have Addai’s struggles - the play-action, once the Colts’ bread and butter, has been abandoned. The Colts have hardly even tried to establish a running game in any of their first four, with the only exception perhaps being against Jacksonville. Facing the Ravens top-rated rush defense (league low 64 ypg), don’t expect those numbers to improve for another week.
We’ve become spoiled in Indianapolis because of the annual streak of 12-win seasons and Division titles. What some Colts’ fans have forgotten is that all good things come to an end. Does this look like a team that will finish the season 10-2? Does this look like a team that can overtake Tennessee? 21-point miracle comebacks against winless teams aren’t going to change anyone’s outlook.
Personal Take
I feel like I have a foot in both camps here. I don’t think the Colts are going to be a serious Super Bowl contender, but I do think they can keep their streak of postseason appearances alive. They are in better shape than San Diego and Jacksonville with their 2-2 record. With the way that they’ve played through the first four, they’re fortunate to be where they’re at, and they have a chance to turn their season around. Win the next two (Baltimore, at Green Bay) and suddenly this is a 4-2 team that is one win away from pulling within a game of Tennessee, assuming they keep winning. In the NFL, things can change on a dime. A team could give up 80 points in back-to-back lopsided losses and at the end of the season that team could be a Super Bowl Champion. A team could be gashed for 275 rushing yards by a division rival and could have the worst rush defense in NFL at the end of the regular season, yet that team could be a Super Bowl Champion. It’s happen the last two years, could it happen again?
SHOOOTING THE REST OF THE SPORTS WORLD:
Swish: Joe Torre
You’ll have to forgive Torre if he doesn’t think making a League Championship Series is a big deal. After all, he’s been to eight of them in the past thirteen seasons. But, this one is special considering all of the circumstances: moving back to the National League, being treated like crap by the Steinbrenner family and exiled by the cold-hearted Yankees. Now it’s Torre who is getting the last laugh, while Hank, George, and the Yankees are sitting at home. Just to add extra salt in the wound, take a look at who Torre’s got in the middle of his lineup… The effect of Torre and Manny Ramirez cannot possibly be understated for these Dodgers. For the entirety of this decade, Los Angeles has had the financial means to build a contender, and they’ve brought in pieces to do so, but never had the glue to bring them together (Grady Little, seriously?). After a few blunders, Ned Coletti has gotten it right and the Dodgers could be in line for their first pennant in 20 years.
Who's laughing now, Hank? Enjoy watching Torre from your couch!
Brick: Chicago Cubs
I was going to pen this column on another lost season for the Cubs, but I’m at a complete loss for words. At least for Cubs fans, this was a quick death as Chicago was never really in their series with the Dodgers. However, the end result is a massive disappointment for a team that has given that word a new meaning. If you don't believe in "curses" then watch the tape from Game 2. Look at the Cubs' body language and look at their sloppy play - could you feel the uneasiness in the atmosphere? Somehow after Game 1 this series was already over. It's almost like the Cubs fans at Wrigley Field and the Cubs themselves were bracing for another epic collapse. You can't play that way and expect to win. Chicago will still be the favorite to win the NL Central next season and should get another shot at the playoffs. However, this year it looked like it was finally coming together for them, and from top to bottom this was the best team in baseball. Unfortunately for the Cubs (and Angels) regular season success doesn't always carry over to October.
The latest collapse had Cubs' fans in disbelief once again
Air Ball: Indiana
Last year's 7-win campaign and the school's first bowl appearance in 15 years gave Hoosier fans hope that the best was yet to come. But, after just five games of the 2008 season, Indiana has already reverted back to their old form. IU's 16-7 loss to Minnesota put them in the basement of the Big Ten, and at 2-3 another bowl appearance seems like a longshot at best. Junior QB Kellen Lewis shows flashes of brilliance but also has a tendency to throw an ill-advised interception or cough up an ill-timed fumble. IU faces a must-win situation Saturday against Iowa at home, then have to hope to go at least 2-2 in their next four (@Illinois, Northwestern, Central Michigan, Wisconsin). They'll have to then steal one on the road against Penn State or Purdue in order to become bowl-eligible, though six wins doesn't guarantee them a spot. With this Charmin-soft schedule, anything worse than 6-6 would be a colossal disappointment (feel better Cubs?).
The Shots Fantasy Update:
Plax On, Plax Off def. DissedLastYear, 82-61
Plax On, Plax Off def. Tig Ol’ Bitties, 101-96
Back-to-back wins have left me all alone in first place at 4-1 on the season. I was also the major beneficiary of a direct violation of the Fantasy Commandments – playing injured or inactive players – during my matchup with DissedLastYear. In that game, the guy started Jon Kitna (bye), Sammy Morris (bye), and Brian Westbrook (hurt). I was pissed about it, but I’ll take it. So far, Lee Evans has come up big and Ronnie Brown in the single-wing is starting to look like a top running back. I bit the bullet and drafted Barber and Romo, but so far it has worked magnificently.
Plax On, Plax Off is atop the Fantasy Football standings
Fantasy NASCAR, 186 point week – back into 7th place
Last year right now, I was completing a New York Mets-like collapse and falling into 2nd place. This year, I’m waiting for this crap to be over.
Fantasy NBA – season approaching
I’ll take team name submissions like I did last year at derek@XL950.com. The rule is that it has to be Knicks-related, especially because I’m joining a league run by a Knicks blog that I go to. Feel free to make fun of them to your heart's content.
The Shots What to Watch this week:
Boston at Tampa Bay, Friday
The Rays made it look easy in dispatching of the White Sox in four games, while the Red Sox look like the same team that has found consistent postseason success since ending the curse in 2004. I know that I’ve said this before in the column, but any non-Boston fan that is actually rooting for the Red Sox in this series is a communist. Do you really want to see anotherBoston team in a Championship series? Really? That storyline is so played-out.
Oklahoma at Texas, Saturday
The Sooners look strong and could further supplant themselves as the team to beat in college football with a win in the annual Red River Rivalry game. Texas is ranked 5th, but they’ve basically become the new Florida State (aka they have to lose five games to fall out of the top ten…aka they’re way overrated every year).
Chicago at Atlanta, Sunday
Two of the NFL’s biggest surprises get together on Sunday. The Bears suddenly look like the team to beat in the NFC North while the Falcons have already surpassed the win total that I predicted for them to begin the season.
The Shots YouTube Clips this week:
Sports related –
Here’s the Colts/Texans highlights just in case you missed it, or if you’re a Brighthouse subscriber. By the way, Bob Lamey said it was over when Houston scored to go up 27-10. The one drawback of the Colts win is that I was interested to see how many people showed up at Lucas Oil Stadium. You think that place was quiet before? Just imagine if how many would buy tickets to see a 1-3 team in last place.
Non-Sports related –
15 minutes of fame ended in 14 seconds. Yikes. P.S. I <expletive> love Gus Johnson. I want him to give the play-by-play of everything: wiffleball, cornhole, Wii bowling…everything.
The Shots Chick Pick this week: Mandy Moore
Regrettably, I had a long-term ex-girlfriend that was way into Mandy Moore and I've sat through 3 1/2 of her awful movies (I convinced her to walk out of How to Deal, thank God). I'll never allow myself to get that whipped again.
See you next week.
Listen to Derek as he hosts the Xtra Large Lunch, every weekday from noon to 1 PM on XL 950!
